Sunday, November 6, 2011



Monday, August 29, 2011

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Friday, August 5, 2011

"" Dow Theory "" Confirms Sell Signal.

If there were any doubts that stocks have entered corrective mode, the "Dow Theory" is now telling us the market is heading down.

The century-old Dow Theory, a way to analyze market trends and turning points, says both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average need to move in tandem to confirm the trend. On Tuesday, the Dow Theory officially gave a sell signal, as Dow industrials and Dow transports broke decisively through June lows, with the Dow transportation index hitting a 2011 low.

The selling comes as worries about the global economy have rippled through financial markets in recent weeks amid signs of further weakening.

The symbiotic relationship between the two indexes is a clear sign to Dow theorists that the economic message and the market outlook are moving in tandem. The idea is that making goods is one leg of the industrial economy and moving those goods around is the second leg, so their trends should be in sync.

Phil Roth, chief technical market analyst at Miller Tabak & Co., said in a Wednesday note that Dow theorists pointed to several divergent actions early last month. For example, the Dow transports hit an all-time high in early July, but the industrials weren't able to follow suit.

The actions were early indicators that the market's uptrend was due for a reversal, which consequently has taken place over the past few weeks. "A sell signal has been confirmed," Mr. Roth said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke an eight-day skid Wednesday, rising 29.82 points, or 0.3%, to 11896.44. The Dow Jones Transportation Average — a 20-member index of airlines, railroads and trucking companies — turned positive in midafternoon trading, erasing a 1.9% loss, and finished up 0.5%, to 4967.18

Despite the intraday bounce, the index, which includes bellwethers FedEx and United Parcel Service Inc., remains firmly in correction territory, down 12% from its all-time closing high on July 7. For now, market technicians are adjusting their models to reflect the stock-market's swoon.

"New short-term oversold extremes mean probabilities are increasing for a short-term rebound, but a rebound is probably a reflex affair in a medium-term trend that just turned down," Mr. Roth said.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Samsonite Shares Tumble In Hong Kong Debut.

HONG KONG – Shares of luggage maker Samsonite International S.A. plunged on their first day of trading Thursday, amid waning investor interest in IPOs as global stock markets slide.

Samsonite shares fell as low as 12.96 Hong Kong dollars, or 10.6 percent, from their offer price of HK$14.50. They closed HK$1.12 or 8 percent lower at HK$13.38.

The world's biggest luggage maker is one of a number of foreign companies going public in Hong Kong, drawn by China's strong economic growth and rapidly growing number of consumers.

But Samsonite's listing comes as Hong Kong stocks follow global markets lower, hit by pessimism about the global economy.

The company raised HK$9.73 billion ($1.25 billion) by selling 672.24 million shares, though that amount was less than the $1.5 billion it could have raised because it failed to price the shares at the top end of the proposed price range.

It said the portion of the IPO allocated to big global investors was "moderately oversubscribed." Local Hong Kong retail investors, who play a big part in IPOs, applied for only 1.2 times the number of shares available to them.

Other foreign companies that have listed in Hong Kong this year include Swiss commodities trader Glencore and Macau casino operator MGM China. Italian fashion house Prada and luxury handbag maker Coach also plan listings.

However, other companies, such as Australia mining company Resourcehouse Ltd., have dropped plans to list in Hong Kong.

Samsonite was founded in 1910 in Denver, Colorado and is now incorporated in Luxembourg. The company plans to focus on developing its business in Asia, Chairman Tim Parker said at a listing ceremony at the Hong Kong stock exchange.

"We expect over the next few years to be developing our company extensively in Asia, in our biggest markets in China and India," Parker said. Samsonite also has "a major foothold in South Korea, Japan and many other markets in Asia, so we feel at home here," he said.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Chinese IPOs Facing Some Serious Headwinds.

How quickly the winds change in the IPO market. Only a couple of weeks ago, Chinese technology and internet stocks were all the rage, heading into last week's much anticipated Renren IPO. Often described as the “Facebook” of China, Renren (RENN) debuted on the NYSE last with a solid, but unspectacular, performance (up 28.6% on the day). This was somewhat of a disappointment when compared to many of the hot Chinese IPOs in the last 12 months (QIHU up 134% on day one, YOKU up 161%, SFUN up 72%, DANG up 86%, and CCIH up 95%).

With the luxury of hindsight, we can now view this as the turning point, from a strong backwind to an increasing headwind. The day after Renren debuted, NetQin Mobile (NQ) had their IPO debut, with an offering described as multiple times over subscribed, and a pricing of $11.50, the high end of the anticipated range. NQ closed the day down 19% (the biggest day one loss of the 2011 IPO year). The stock closed Tuesday at $7.66.

Meanwhile RENN has been in a free fall since last week, and actually broke their IPO priced of $14.00 yesterday morning. Of the top performers listed above, all but SFUN (down 45% from IPO price) are currently still trading above their IPO prices. However, YOKU is the only one of the group that is currently trading above its day one close.

All of this brings us to this week's offerings. Three Chinese IPOs were expected to price this week, (DATE), China Zenix Auto (ZX) and Phoenix New Media (FENG). is the leading online dating platform in China, and was reportedly multiple times oversubscribed, despite some increasing concern with Chinese IPOs. While there were some rumors yesterday that the DATE IPO was cancelled, it actually was priced at $11.00, the midpoint of the range.

After opening flat, the stock was below issue in midday trading. China Zenix Auto, the largest commercial vehicle wheel manufacturer in China, announced yesterday that the price range of its offering has been cut to $6.00-8.00 from $9.50-11.50. Phoenix New Media was expected last night, and while we will have to wait and see any new developments, we would not be at all surprised to see an delays or reduced term.

Anyone who invests in Chinese IPOs - or Chinese ADSs, in general, for that matter - knows that this current shift in sentiment is all too common. Often it is related to some sort of policy shift in China, concerns of slowing growth, and/or concerns of a bubble. Whatever the current reason (most likely the fact that current valuations were getting well ahead of themselves), the current tide has shifted, and the prudent investor will sit on the sidelines until the winds change. And they will.

Article from Seeking

Monday, March 14, 2011

What The Japanese Quake Means For Stocks?

Article from the Wall Street Journal

Investors may have to brace themselves for some turmoil in the days and weeks ahead.

The Bank of Japan has promised to inject liquidity into the financial system to prevent a collapse. But the Tokyo stock market nonetheless plunged more than 4% shortly after opening Monday morning, three days after the devastating earthquake.

Many big Japanese investors – insurance companies, banks and other institutions, as well as private households – will need to sell some of their holdings quickly to raise cash.

Meanwhile, most potential buyers of stocks are likely to sit on their hands. Institutional investors fear uncertainty above all else. Few fund managers will brave the "career risk" of a bold bet on Japan at this juncture. And how many private investors are willing to brave the emotional challenge of investing in Tokyo today?

Meanwhile, the markets will be absorbing the economic news. It's likely to be grim.

Thousands, maybe tens of thousands, may be dead. Many more will be homeless. The country has been forced to launch "rolling blackouts" to cope with the loss of nuclear power. Infrastructure has been destroyed. And, as my Dow Jones colleagues Yoshio Takahashi and Hiroyuki Kachi wrote, the quake has hit a broad range of Japan's key industries. Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Sony, Panasonic and Toshiba have all shut factories temporarily in response to the disaster.

"When we talk about natural disasters, we tend to see an initial sharp drop in production... then you tend to have a V-shaped rebound," Michala Marcussen, head of global economics at Societe Generale, told Reuters. "But initially everyone underestimates the damage."

Yet how much should this really shave off the value of shares? The economy will recover, probably faster than many fear. And the economic events of the next few months, or even a year, are less important to the true value of the stock market than investors typically believe.

Research by Ben Inker, chief investment officer at fund firm GMO, found that most of the value of your shares is based on the profits companies are going to earn many years, even decades, into the future. Next quarter's earnings, even next year's earnings, don't matter anywhere near as much as we think.

Some people will point out that the Japanese market slumped by about a quarter in the months after the Kobe earthquake of 1995. And this earthquake was considerably worse.

But there's one big difference.

When the Kobe earthquake hit in 1995, the Japanese stock market was still coming down from the biggest equity bubble of all time. Shares were very expensive, which meant that they were highly vulnerable to any setbacks and there was a long way to fall. On the eve of that earthquake, the market in Tokyo traded on an absolutely absurd 53 times forecast earnings.

Today: Just 13 times.

Other historical analogies offer little guide. We remember that Wall Street plummeted in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. We sometimes forget that it quickly rebounded. Asian markets were able to shrug off the economic impact of the 2004 tsunami pretty quickly.

Even if the Japanese stock market is in for a rocky ride, what about markets here?

You may have to expect at least some effect on Wall Street and elsewhere. Capital markets are global. Japanese institutions liquidating investments to raise cash will be selling in New York and London as well as Tokyo. And some of the same factors will be keeping potential buyers on the sidelines. With all this uncertainty, investors are more likely to want to steer clear. It's human nature.

But how far this earthquake will affect the actual economy of the rest of the world is much harder to gauge. Yes, Japan is the world's third largest economy and a major trading partner. But it doesn't matter quite as much as some may think.

Japan today accounts for a smaller share of the global economy than at any time since the 1970s – 5.8%, according to the International Monetary Fund, compared to 7.5% a decade ago and more than 9% in the early 1990s.

We send just 7% of our exported goods and services to Japan, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. That's far less than we send to Canada or Mexico, and one-fifth as much as we send to the European Union. The entirety of American exports to Japan account for less than 1% of the total U.S. economy.

Japan's stock market, which twenty years ago was the most valuable in the world, today accounts for a smaller share of global equity values than at any time in decades. On the eve of the Kobe earthquake, it accounted for nearly 30% of world stock market values. Today? Just 7.5%.

For investors, the bigger risk is that, today, world stock markets are already pretty expensive. As we know, that leaves them vulnerable to external shocks or a downturn. Whether Japan sparks one is another matter.

Update, March 13, 11:16 p.m.: This story was updated to reflect the opening of the Tokyo stock market.

Monday, February 28, 2011

KL Bourse's Technical Rebound On Horizon

2011/02/28 Article from

Investors should still seriously consider accumulating blue chips on weakness, especially those in the banking, consumer, construction, plantation, property and oil & gas sectors, says a head of research.

Stocks suffered another bout of selling which accelerated late last week as investors reduced exposure given concerns escalating tensions in the Arab world, specifically in Libya, will disrupt crude oil supplies which caused prices to spike up above the US$100 (RM305) a barrel mark. Hence, increasing worries rising inflation would stall the global economic recovery.

As a consequence, the blue-chip benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) gave back 28.29 points, or 1.86 per cent, last week to settle at 1,489.27, a fresh two-month low, with Axiata (-27sen), MISC (-73 sen), KLK (-RM1.82), CIMB (-17sen) and Sime Draby (-18 sen) representing two-thirds of the index's loss. Average daily traded volume and value slowed moderately to 1.73 billion shares and RM2.11 billion respectively, compared to the 1.77 billion shares and RM2.12 billion average the previous week.

Tensions in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) have rekindled worries about high oil prices exacerbating inflationary pressures and dampening purchasing power that could nip the nascent global economic recovery in the bud. Things went from bad to worse when the unrest spread to Libya, one of the 12 members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec). Libya contributed 5.4 per cent to the oil cartel's crude output of 29.4 million barrels last month. Although Libya's oil output of 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) is insignificant compared to global supply of 89.6 million bpd, news about attack on its oil facilities led to concerns about prolonged disruptions and possibilities of similar attack on other oil facilities. Concern about unrest spreading to other key oil exporters like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq that contribute about 29 per cent, 13 per cent and 9 per cent to Opec's supply could sustain the volatility in oil prices and global equity markets, including Malaysia's.

While nobody knows for sure how things will evolve, this could be a buying opportunity if the situation in Libya does not prolong and the revolts do not spread. For some investors it pays to be greedy when others are fearful and they may be right. To note, Saudi Arabia has already promised an infusion of US$35 billion in various social benefits to avert a crisis and has pledged to turn on the tap from its 4 million bpd spare capacity to meet any shortfall in global crude oil supply.

Based on January's data there was already an oversupply situation of 2.2 million bpd as demand contracted by 2.9 per cent month-on-month with second biggest consumer like China trying hard to cool its economy. The US, being the biggest consumer, has increased its energy efficiency over the last four decades and is said to be less susceptible to any direct effect from an oil price increase as a jump of US$10 is expected to dampen growth by only 0.2 per cent.

The biggest test now is for global superpowers to come together and exert their influence in solving this crisis and managing inflationary expectations through commitment in releasing their emergency oil reserves, raising interest rates and allowing currency appreciation, among others. The fact that we are almost at the tail-end of the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere could contribute to lower demand as well.

There is no doubt that international trade could be a drag on our economy this year given the uncertain global economic environment but the current favourable employment conditions, ample liquidity and cheap financing opportunities are expected to still lead to a strong domestic demand-spurred growth of 6 per cent in 2011 as private consumption and investments thrive. Further appreciation potential in ringgit could be a dampener on inflation as well. On the back of a still robust economy, favourable commodity prices and corporate earnings growth (the earnings reporting season so far is within expectation and contained less unfavourable outcomes), there are still good reasons to accumulate blue chips in the heavyweight sectors like banking and plantation apart from good small and midcap plays in other sectors like oil and gas, property and automotive.

This week will see the release of important economic indicators like core inflation, non-farm payroll numbers and factory orders in the US while locally the trade numbers will be released on Friday. No major surprises are expected.

Technical outlook

Spot month February KLCI futures contract traded on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives tumbled 33.5 points, or 2.2 per cent, week-on-week to 1,482.5, deteriorating to a 6.77-point discount to the cash index, compared to the minor 1.56-point discount the previous Friday. Long liquidation and panic selling forced the bulls to cut losses on their futures trading positions.

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia recovered from an early sell-off last Monday sparked by concerns over spreading anti-government demonstrations in the Arab world, as investors returned to nibble on blue chips while lower liners extended profit-taking corrections. The FBM KLCI climbed 8.29 points to close at 1,525.85, off a high of 1,527.09.

The local market tumbled the next day, in line with the retreat on key regional markets on profit-taking activities as investors were rattled by the escalating tensions in the Arab world, and sentiment was further weighed down after Moody's Investors Services changed its outlook on Japan's Aa1 sovereign rating to negative from stable on Tuesday. The FBM KLCI lost 12.22 points to close at 1,513.63.

Stocks extended their correction on Wednesday amid worries instability in the Arab world would disrupt oil supply shipments, pushing prices sharply higher to derail a global economic recovery. The FBM KLCI ended 2.52 points lower at 1,511.11. The local market tumbled the following day in line with the region on concern increasing civil strife in Libya will disrupt oil supplies, which sent crude oil prices above the US$100 a barrel mark, and stall the global economic recovery. The FBM KLCI lost 21.24 points, or 1.4 per cent, to close at the day's low of 1,489.87, as losers swarmed gainers 863 to 116 on heavy volume of 2 billion shares worth RM2.62 billion.

The market rebounded on Friday after oil prices retraced to US$97 a barrel overnight from a 29-month high of US$103.4 as the US, Saudi Arabia and International Energy Agency gave an assurance that they can compensate for any disruption to Libyan shipments. However, the local benchmark index lost 0.6 points to close at the day's low of 1,489.27, off an early high of 1,499.44, pressured by falls in Tenaga, Maybank and KLK, as gainers led losers 524 to 300 in cautious trade which totalled 1.39 billion shares worth RM1.79 billion.

The trading range last week expanded to 37.82 points, compared with 27.02 points in the previous week.

The daily slow stochastics trigger line for the FBM KLCI has just dipped below the oversold level following last week's sell-down, which was mirrored by the weekly indicator, suggesting an initial oversold technical condition which could spark a rebound this week. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has also dipped to level off with a low reading of 35.47, while the 14-week RSI has declined to a neutral level of 51.1.

Meanwhile, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trend indicator signal line registered a further decline, copying weakness on the weekly MACD indicator. The +DI and -DI lines on the 14-day Directional Movement Index (DMI) indicator registered a mild expansion to suggest a developing downtrend.


While trend indicators for the FBM KLCI continued to weaken, initial oversold readings on momentum indicators suggest a technical rebound is likely this week. Moreover, further strength in US stocks last Friday encouraged by stronger economic data and corporate earnings should boost regional sentiment and support recovery early this week. Nonetheless, the rebound upside may be capped if the Libyan situation deteriorates. All in all, investors should still seriously consider accumulating blue chips on weakness, especially those in the banking, consumer, construction, plantation, property and oil & gas sectors, for medium-term gains.

Immediate FBM KLCI resistance is foreseen at 1,511, the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of the rise from the 1,474 low of November 29 2010 to the record high of 1,576.95 of January 6, with subsequent hurdles at 1,525, the 50 per cent FR, followed by 1,537, the 38.2 per cent FR and next at 1,552, the 23.6 per cent FR.

On the downside, it should still defend the significant bottom at the low of 1,490 on February 11, which must hold to prevent further downside risk towards the next significant support from the 1,474 low. This level should hold to prevent a slide further to 1,450, which is the 38.2 per cent FR of the rise from 1,243 low of May last year to the record high of 1,576.95 of 6 January.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

America’s 10 Worst Years Start Right Now.

America’s 10 worst years start right now
Commentary: 2011-2020: Rich get richer, market crashes, empire ends.

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Dateline December 2020. Let’s look back on the 2011-2020 decade, at what historians call the “Worst Decade in American History.” Totally predictable, totally denied.

Back in January 2011 we made 10 predictions of a chain of events that would reach a critical mass and consume America in a torrent of creative destruction, crippling capitalism and other outmoded institutions, forcing new power players to step out of shadows and assume leadership in a time of extreme crisis.Now we see how they came true.

“The U.S. economy appears to be coming apart at the seams,” Columbia Professor Robert Lieberman warned back then in the Foreign Affairs Journal. “Unemployment remains at nearly 10%, the highest level in almost 30 years. A long trend of “ballooning incomes at the very top and stagnant incomes in the middle and at the bottom. The share of total income going to the top 1% has increased from roughly 8% in the 1960s to more than 20% today. … a level of economic inequality not seen in the United States since the eve of the Great Depression.”

As the decade opened in 2011 we were being conned again, like before the 2008 meltdown — by the same crooks we bailed out. We should have forgotten all Wall Street’s hoopla about a 2011 bull market with the Dow rocketing to 15,000. We should have thought long-term. We knew Wall Street lost an inflation-adjusted 20% of our money the previous decade. We should have known they would lose another 20% by 2020.

The “Gilded Age” bubble from a decade ago ended in a crash worse than 1929, and left us on the brink of a Great Depression 2. We ended up with a decade of increasing battles between the haves and have-nots, where there is no longer room for “compromise” between the two ideologies destroying America from within.

We could have seen that coming, too, as Lieberman warned of class warfare a decade ago: “Income inequality in the United States is higher than in any other advanced industrial democracy … It breeds political polarization, mistrust, and resentment between the haves and the have-nots and tends to distort the workings of a democratic political system in which money increasingly confers political voice and power.”

“The Gap,” the divide, the greed, the entitlements, the hostilities are now so entrenched that “negotiations” are impossible and only a catastrophic 1929-style collapse of our self-destructive capitalism and a descent into economic hell will force America to restructure.

Here’s how we got here over the last 10 years:

2011. Wall Street’s super-rich spend billions to control Washington
Thanks to the conservative takeover of America’s so-called democracy the past three decades, from Reagan to Obama, our activist Supreme Court delivered the coup de grace into America’s psyche in 2010, overturning long-established precedent and giving rich owners of zombie corporations absolute rights of live humans, a decision that would have gotten a failing grade in my constitutional law class at the University of Virginia. It set up Wall Street’s super-rich in 2011 as they advanced their takeover.

2012. Super-Rich gain absolute power over Washington
The bizarre decision, which essentially legalized political bribery, led to billions passing through lobbyists to politicians in all parties, with one goal: A guarantee that all politicians (President, Congress, Fed, regulators and state governments), all adhere to Reaganomics and the ideology that money talks and wealth rules.

As a result, America was no longer a democracy by 2012, not even a plutocracy. Our middle class rapidly spiraled down into third-world status, while the rich get richer and the gap between the richest and the rest widened. Worse, the 2012 presidential race became irrelevant, because money corrupts all in Washington and Obama was already a puppet of America’s super-rich conspiracy.

2013. Pentagon’s WWIII global commodity wars accelerate for 2020 peak
Back during the Bush II presidency, Fortune analyzed a classified Pentagon report that predicted “climate could change radically and fast. That would be the mother of all national security issues.” Billions more people will increase unrest across the world, creating “massive droughts, turning farmland into dust bowls and forests to ashes.”

As a result, “by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening ... an old pattern could emerge; warfare defining human life,” confronting political leaders everywhere with the reality of our civilization collapsing, even the end of life on the planet. This was the year the hard evidence materialized.

2014. Global population bubble accelerating, wasting commodities
By now it had become clear that America’s Conspiracy of the Super-Rich was draining trillions from middle-class taxpayers. They see global population growth (exploding more than 100 million annually) not as a drain on scarce resources but only as a way to get richer through their obsession with free-market “globalization.”

They ignore the coming 2050 tragedies when global population is 9 billion, dwarfing America’s 400 million, and all are demanding more of the Earth’s limited, non-renewable commodity resources, and demanding payback from America’s long failure to heed warnings of environmentalists like Bill McKibben: “Act now, we’re told, if we want to save the planet from a climate catastrophe. Trouble is, it might be too late. The science is settled, and the damage has already begun.”

2015. Gilded Age globalization implodes America’s Global Empire
Around the time of the Pentagon’s WWIII prediction, historian Kevin Phillips warned in “Wealth & Democracy:’ “Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out.”

Similarly, financial historian Niall Ferguson, author of “Colossus: The Rise and Fall of The American Empire,” warned that we deceive ourselves, thinking “about the political process in seasonal, cyclical terms.” By 2015 most agreed America has was past its peak.

2016. Wall Street capitalism self-destructs, crashes, mass bankruptcies
“But what if history is not cyclical and slow-moving but arrhythmic, asks Ferguson. “What if collapse does not arrive over a number of centuries but comes suddenly,” too rapid to respond in time. Unfortunately, in our blind greed we refuse to hear “Irrational Exuberance” author Robert Shiller’s warning that “we recently lived through two epidemics of excessive financial optimism … are close to a third episode … another meltdown ... another depression.”

Once again, our leaders ignored history. Ignored Jared Diamond’s earlier warning in “Collapse:” “One of the disturbing facts of history is that so many civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society’s demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power.” The 2016 elections changed nothing.

2017. Middle-class revolution: Buffett’s rich class loses, overthrown
The seeds were planted years ago. Warren Buffett saw the revolution coming: “There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”

By 2017 it had exploded into a new Civil War as all hell broke loose after the 2016 presidential election. The growing income gap popped Wall Street’s bubble for the third time in the 21st century, the economy collapsed, riots spread against another bailout of too-greedy-to-fail Wall Street banks. A class rebellion ignited.

2018. Reaganomics capitalism collapses, Glass-Steagall reinstated
Diamond says he’s a “cautious optimist,” our leaders need “the courage to practice long-term thinking, and make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they reach crisis proportions.” Deaf, they still fail to act.

The “Crisis of 2018” triggered a cultural revolution, a jarring wake-up call. History warns that most leaders are driven by short-term self-interest not long-term public interests, especially politicians bankrolled by billionaires who can’t see past quarterly earnings, year-end bonuses, the next election. This catastrophe may have finally woken us up.

2019. WWIII commodity wars spread, cost trillions, kill hundreds of millions
Over $30 trillion in federal, state and local debt, plus spending half our budget on the Pentagon’s war machine, finally overwhelmed America’s fiscal policy and the world’s bond markets in 2019.

Unfortunately, the growing number of commodity wars ignited by an accelerating global population and decline in the world’s scarce resources also forced a total rethinking of the balance between spending to contain external threats and a rapid deterioration of social-program needs: employment, retirement, education, health care.

2020. Patriarchy ends: male dominance declines, women leaders rise
Back in 2011 it seemed clear that patriarchy, male dominance world culture, politics and economics throughout history, would collapse all by itself, without women engaging in any direct war, any “battle of the sexes” to defeat men at their own game. But in 2020, women may be our only salvation.

Dr. Jean Bolen, author of “The Millionth Circle” and a leader in organizing the United Nation’s 2015 Conference on Women, challenged women to confront males and put an “end to patriarchy,” because only women can “save the world.” Others like Gloria Feldt, author of “No Excuses: 9 Ways Women Can Change How We Think About Power,” are preparing a new generation of leaders.

Four decades ago my law school class had five women, today across America, women are a majority in most professional schools. Soon they will be called upon.

Why are male leaders failing America in government, business and finance? Jeremy Grantham’s firm GMO manages $96 billion. He predicted the meltdown, said it best in early 2008: American’s leaders are all “impatient ... management types who focus on what they are doing this quarter or this annual budget.”

Real leadership “requires more people with a historical perspective who are more thoughtful and more right-brained ... but we end up with an army of left-brained immediate doers. So it’s more or less guaranteed that every time we get an outlying, obscure event that has never happened before in history, they are always to miss it,” as in 2000, 2008 and again this decade.

Could we change the future?
In post-capitalism, post-patriarchy America, women will emerge from the ashes of “The Worst Decade in American History: 2011-2020.” Women leaders will emerge not just because the males’ short-term brains are sabotaging America’s long-term needs, but because the female brain has naturally evolved for long-term thinking.

Brain research tells us that 75% of men are left-brain short-term thinkers. Conversely, 75% of women tend to have strong right-brain traits: forward-thinkers, more awareness of the future, the big picture, with a strong sense of long-term benefits and consequences, peacemakers.

In future columns we’ll dig more into the role of women as the new leaders in a post-capitalism, post-patriarchy America. But for now, take these 10 predictions seriously, invest wisely, defensively, and don’t be misled by Wall Street’s happy talk