Sunday, February 1, 2009

Technical Speaking S.N.Lock 01-02-2009

Next week, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index is likely to be range-bound with consolidation towards the second half of the week.

SHARE prices on Bursa Malaysia rebounded in step with the technical rebounds on regional stock markets over the last three trading days. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) continued to stay below its critical support of level of 900 when it closed at 884.45 points yesterday. The KLCI opened marginally higher at 874.02 points before rebounding to close at the day's high of 879.63 on Wednesday, giving a day-on-day gain of 6.94 points, or 0.80 per cent.

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia maintained their technical composure on Thursday. The KLCI closed at 883.16 points, giving a day-on-day gain of 3.53 points, or 0.40 per cent. The KLCI consolidated for the major part of yesterday before edging out a marginal gain in a late-hour rebound. The KLCI closed off its day's low at 884.45 points, giving a day-on-day gain of 1.29 points, or 0.15 per cent.

The KLCI closed marginally higher at 884.45 points yesterday, giving a week-on-week gain of 11.76 points, or 1.35 per cent. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Second Board Index gained 11.06 points, or 0.28 per cent, to 3,938.62 level while the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mesdaq Index added 5.76 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 3,367.44 level.

Following are the readings of some of its technical indicators:

Moving Averages: The KLCI had since stayed below its 20-, 30-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. It stayed above its 10- and 50-day moving averages.

Momentum Index: Its short-term momentum index continued to stay below the support of its neutral reference line.

On Balance Volume: Its short-term OBV trend stayed above the support of its 10-day exponential moving averages.

Relative Strength Index: Its 14-day RSI stood at the 48.34 per cent level yesterday.

Outlook

The KLCI's brief follow-through rebound hit its intra-week high of 887.27 on Thursday, encountering resistance at this column's envisaged resistance zone (876 to 910 levels).

Chartwise, the KLCI continued to stay below its immediate downside support (See KLCI's weekly chart - A1:A2). It continued to stay above its resistance-turned-support trendline (A7:A8).

The KLCI's daily trend staged a re-test of its immediate downside support (See KLCI's daily chart - B3:B4) over the last three trading days. It stayed above its recently established uptrend (B5:B6).

The KLCI's weekly fast MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) continued to stay above the support of its weekly slow MACD at the market close on Friday. Its daily and monthly fast MACDs continued to stay below their respective slow MACDs.

The KLCI's 14-day RSI stayed at 48.34 per cent level yesterday. Its 14-week and 14-month RSI stayed at 37.23 and 30.95 per cent levels respectively. The KLCI managed to maintain its technical composure over the last three trading days despite the mixed performances on Wall Street and regional stock markets.

Taking its market breadth as a gauge of its future market direction, the KLCI is likely to trend in its range-bound activities. It will unfold its consolidations towards the second half of the week. Next week, the KLCI's envisaged resistance zone hovers at the 887 to 921 levels while its immediate downside support is at the 847 to 881 levels.

Technical Speaking by S.N.Look

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